It’s a battle for the No. 1 seed in the NFC! While the rest of the Week 18 NFL schedule leaves much to be desired, Vikings-Lions is as juicy as they come.
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Two Coach of the Year candidates. Two dangerous offenses with supreme play-callers. Two aggressive defenses that have battled injuries of varying degrees lately. Stars, reclamation projects and hipster role players are on every side. The Lions even feature one of the best special teams units in the NFL.
For Week 18's playbook, I am going to look at when both the Vikings and Lions have the ball and what will be the key components to each matchup.
It’s a Black and Blue division brouhaha. Let’s get into it.
When the Vikings have the ball
Both units have new faces sprinkled throughout compared to their first go-around this season. For the Vikings, it’s been a mix of positive additions (T.J. Hockenson returning from injury, Dalton Risner replacing the woeful Ed Ingram at right guard) and subtractions to mitigate, like losing Christian Darrisaw at left tackle to season-ending injury and replacing him with Cam Robinson, who was acquired before the trade deadline. On Detroit’s side, the Lions' defense seems like it has mostly ended up on the athletic trainer’s table. Injuries have hit every position room for this group, but a recent return has shifted the Lions' structure and another potential return could help steady a different patched-together portion of this unit.
Detroit's defense had a quirk this season: the Lions would trot out their “base” personnel (four linemen, three linebackers, four defensive backs) at a higher rate than any other team. In a league that has been getting smaller on the defensive side, the Lions went big and stayed big whenever they could. Linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez was injured in Week 10 and went to IR soon afterward. Alex Anzalone was also on injured reserve, but has been designated to return and practiced Thursday. The loss of those two has been felt for the Lions (the absence of Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill hasn’t been fun, either) when teams like to put bigger bodies on the field and throw the ball. It's an issue for this defense, one that has reared its ugly head even as Detroit keeps collecting wins. The Lions are still quite good in defending the run, stacking up as one of the league’s most stout units even with injuries accumulating left and right. DJ Reader is still DJ Reader. Jack Campbell has definitely improved to tolerable against the pass but he is firmly good against the run.
After the Lions suffered those linebacker injuries and lost McNeill’s early down pressure, opponents have found ways to get chunks of yardage through the air when they put bigger bodies on the field and throw the ball. Play-action concepts, especially bootlegs that move the quarterback out of the pocket, have given the Lions issues as of late. It's a weakness that got poked at more recently by offenses as they look to affect the Lions' off-ball defenders with fakes and misdirection.
Since Week 15, the Lions have allowed the most passing yards (373) and yards per attempt (12.4) in the NFL to play-action concepts. And this isn’t just a few chunk plays. QBs have a dropback success rate of 67.7% against the Lions on play-action concepts. Caleb Williams, Josh Allen and Brock Purdy had consistent success on a variety of different actions. That's an easy thread to pull at for Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell. While Sam Darnold has been plenty effective on straight dropbacks, play-action concepts are still a healthy part of O’Connell's well-balanced and Shanahan/McVay-influenced play menu.
Darnold is top-five in just about any number you want to look at on play-action concepts. From simple box score statistics like yards per attempt (10.6, second), passer rating (135.1, second) and even touchdowns (16, first) to advanced metrics like dropback success rate (55.2%, fifth). The Vikings are a throw-first team, but they still use that threat of the run to provide eye candy and the heavier protection that play-action provides to chuck the ball downfield. And Darnold loved to oblige that downfield philosophy.
With the return of Hockenson, the Vikings also have even more paths to get after the Lions. The Vikings play with two or fewer WRs on the field (personnel groupings that typically force defenses to match with their own base defenses) at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL on early downs. Minnesota uses 21 personnel (two running backs, including fullback C.J. Ham, a TE and two WRs) and 12 personnel (one RB, two TEs, two WRs) at equal rates. These tools for O’Connell get more useful with the threat of Hockenson as a pass catcher.
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